Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 80620.760657 85122.895969 89624.102147 94458.816032 99501.509597 104602.746725 110149.970553
2025-01-12 72681.372201 79535.466118 86581.517662 94356.116517 102683.675463 111325.640271 120961.493449
2025-01-19 66918.588775 75345.178600 84200.587850 94179.494940 105090.124421 116635.713309 129755.356494
2025-01-26 63775.784633 73513.874954 83934.092777 95879.050205 109157.396140 123429.112396 139891.787176
2025-02-02 61261.642881 72080.940129 83841.527590 97523.688446 112950.524895 129752.666609 149381.603658
2025-02-09 58599.521251 70257.818067 83113.457170 98271.202423 115581.466478 134659.745902 157200.537478
2025-02-16 55749.979865 68035.127794 81765.407938 98157.665864 117100.489742 138207.180491 163403.454372
2025-02-23 53585.183333 66470.168793 81050.030552 98656.249496 119221.856606 142363.971883 170248.069934
2025-03-02 51395.902240 64759.230541 80059.849354 98737.519907 120777.270922 145809.249962 176233.889860
2025-03-09 50048.758727 63970.832455 80083.763792 99947.273735 123602.265741 150693.775502 183879.142794
2025-03-16 47897.021829 62119.937130 78762.129697 99482.954403 124387.709755 153149.929587 188656.882397
2025-03-23 46919.292726 61646.558123 79046.955644 100902.724812 127385.626358 158195.096288 196488.364907
2025-03-30 45667.025935 60811.667730 78885.199884 101791.886021 129779.457976 162583.070351 203636.739097
2025-04-06 44067.894887 59489.103557 78080.621644 101859.284757 131155.828443 165751.234394 209346.357360
2025-04-13 42463.346754 58099.722489 77139.800571 101710.016456 132229.033595 168530.376948 214580.813495
2025-04-20 41905.930482 58013.386043 77798.028431 103526.618052 135709.383019 174229.015255 223372.972203
2025-04-27 41358.911428 57911.871883 78415.372362 105277.884792 139106.433793 179838.566612 232089.421151
2025-05-04 40409.909173 57251.551663 78293.859802 106073.313120 141298.451492 183971.041602 239015.084947
2025-05-11 39103.674651 56079.002985 77478.741476 105952.658231 142314.422401 186638.804755 244137.228826
2025-05-18 38149.720933 55339.779978 77192.476541 106482.910762 144134.080042 190295.769229 250491.110794
2025-05-25 37054.674751 54376.498097 76583.656469 106569.341403 145369.027354 193213.886611 255929.703707
2025-06-01 36513.367072 54139.861636 76908.949984 107855.744335 148133.881038 198055.907604 263795.902561
2025-06-08 35271.688764 52912.737558 75895.008626 107362.028585 148585.638974 199970.723258 267983.766328